I am deeply unimpressed by the argument that Russia stands to gain no benefit (political, economic, etc.) by escalating its military aggression against Ukraine in the coming months as the US and credible military analysts fear is a likely scenario given Russian recent military buildup around Ukraine.
It’s an EXCELLENT time to test willingness and ability to respond and defend Ukraine.
There is turmoil and chaos in Europe: the secessionist crisis in Bosnia Herzegovina and the Belarus-Poland border crisis are a major distraction.
Domestic politics in Berlin, Paris, and DC are too. Macron is facing elections, Merkel is on her way out with genuine pro-Russians likely taking her place, and the US is dealing with the not yet “post Trump” political landscape.
Why wouldn’t Putin capitalize on all this for more of what he wants in Ukraine?
The argument that it is not in Moscow’s interest to militarily invade Ukraine further reminds me of how stupid it was to say Russia wouldn’t invade Ukraine because it couldn’t gain anything by doing so. Yet here we are almost a full eight years later.
And Tucker Carlson’s recent, “Why should we defend Ukraine? Why shouldn’t we side with Russia?” rant on Fox news suggests to me that the Kremlin propaganda machine is priming Americans to not care when Russia takes its war against Ukraine to the next level, or to object to helping with defence.