December 2, 2022

УСІМ | UWIN

Українська світова інформаційна мережа | Ukrainian Worldwide Information Network

THE BIG PICTURE, NOW!

2 min read

In a world of 24 hour news and instant communication the public can become addicted to a need for information. This might be relevant on the stock market but it certainly isn’t relevant when it comes to war in Ukraine.

A missile here and a movement there have no real effect on the strategic aims of the armed forces. It is better for us all to sit back and wait for at least a ufew days and even better a week before coming to any conclusions about how battles are going.

If we look back a week or two we can see that Russian forces have made small advances in Donbas and Luhansk. Taken alone this can give the impression that Russia is ‘winning’ its war. Missiles hit various cities from long range and cause the tragic death of some civilians and the media act as though these are war changing events.

The battle for the truth is important and public opinion has great value but moment to moment changes even tragic deaths become less emotional when reported repeatedly.

We should step back and try to see the strategic picture to have any idea of what is really happening and who is really likely to win this campaign.

Russia has made limited advances because is doesn’t have enough troops to hold more ground.
Russia has money but is struggling to replace the ammunition stocks that it is burning up or to replace lost high tech parts.
Russia is losing men and without mobilisation cannot replace those men.
Russia cannot replace the lost machines.
Russia cannot completely control the propaganda message to Russians. The internet has ways of getting through even the most thorough restrictions. Soldiers on the front line are calling home with bad news.
Russia’s navy have taken serious losses and are either forced out to sea or are heavily restricted in their movements.

Ukraine has international moral support.
Ukraine has international financial support.
Ukraine is increasing its capacity to fight with materiel from the west.
Ukraine has defeated the Russian northern front, halted the southern front and is making all advances on the central front costly to Russia.
NATO and other democratic countries are united against Russia.
Sanctions are adding to the fight.
Businesses have withdrawn from Russia.

If we step back and look at the world rather that the field, the strategic advantage lies heavily on the side of Ukraine.

Robin Horsfall


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