December 5, 2022

УСІМ | UWIN

Українська світова інформаційна мережа | Ukrainian Worldwide Information Network

24 July 2022: Here are the key takeaways from this evening’s Ukraine update by the great team at the Institute for the Study of War:

— Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast. An Oblast official stated today that Ukrainian forces are undertaking unspecified counteroffensive actions in Kherson Oblast.

— Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 23 that Ukrainian forces are advancing “step by step” in Kherson Oblast. His statement does not make clear whether he is referring to small, advances in Kherson Oblast or a broader counteroffensive.

— Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported today that Ukrainian forces are firing on Russian transport facilities in Kherson Oblast to impede maneuverability and logistics support. This is consistent with support to a counteroffensive or conditions-setting for an upcoming counteroffensive.

— Alarm in the Russian nationalist information space continues to grow as the pace of Russian operations slows in the face of successful Ukrainian high-mobility artillery rocket system (HIMARS) strikes on key Russian logistics and command-and-control nodes.

— Moscow Calling, a Russian Telegram channel with 31,000 subscribers, posted an appraisal of Russian operations in Ukraine since February 24. It highlighted the arrival of HIMARS as a distinct turning point in the war and stated that previously-provided Western weapons systems (such as NLAWs, Javelins, Stingers, and Bayraktars) did very little against Russian artillery bombardment (they are not designed to counter artillery attack), but that HIMARS changed everything for Russian capabilities in Ukraine.

— Moscow Calling strongly suggested that recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian warehouses, communication hubs, and rear bases are having a devastating and potentially irreversible impact on the development of future Russian offensives.

— Russian troops are being forced to engage in various HIMARS mitigation tactics, including camouflage measures and constantly changing the location of equipment groupings. These tactics prevent Russian forces from conducting the massive artillery barrages that they have widely employed over the course of the war, as evidenced by NASA data that shows fewer observed heat anomalies over the frontline in Donbas since the introduction of HIMARS to Ukraine.

— The Kremlin is facing mounting (but still limited) domestic dissent from within ethnic minority enclaves, which are disproportionately bearing the brunt of the Kremlin’s force generation efforts.

— Russian forces attempted limited ground assaults northwest of Slovyansk, east of Siversk, and south of Bakhmut on July 24.

— Ukrainian strikes have damaged all three Russian-controlled bridges leading into Kherson City within the past week.

— Russian forces attempted limited ground assaults in Kherson Oblast.

General David Petraeus

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