September 27, 2023


Українська світова інформаційна мережа | Ukrainian Worldwide Information Network


3 min read

It is often said that there are no winners in a war, but there are definitely losers and I am convinced that Russia will lose this war because:

1. Leadership: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a remarkable and exemplary Leader. He is articulate, inspiring, trustworthy and admired. Putin is despised by military experts and civilised civilians alike.

2. The 7P’s: A well know military maxim is that, “Proper Planning and Preparation, Prevents Piss Poor Performance.” The Ukrainians have been diligently preparing for this onslaught since Russia invaded The Crimea in 2014. The Russian military is poorly prepared and maintained because:

A. Pervasive corruption enabled officials to syphon off millions of Rubles that were allocated to it.

B. The pervading arrogance of Russia’s leaders. This was evident when they deployed the initial wave of troops with ceremonial parade dress uniforms ready for the victory parade expected to be held after a week or so. Consider just how delusional that was.

3. Morals and Morale: A maxim by Napoleon, “In war, the moral is to the physical as three to one” highlights that combatants and a population who fight with morally just motives have an uplift in morale that equates to a 3 to 1 battle advantage. It highlights the complex relationship between morals, morale and victory in a war. UN chief Antonio Guterres has rightly said that Russia’s war on Ukraine is “evil”.

The vile motives and utter lack of humanitarian values in the Russian regime will greatly weaken them when the chips are down, especially against the collective courageous Ukrainian spirit.

The fact that Russia has a population over 145 million but still needs to pay foreign mercenaries to fight for them is telling and in military terms, truly pathetic.

By contrast, over 23,000 ex-service personnel from around the world have travelled to fight for The Ukraine. They are not paid mercenaries; they are just honourable people with something to offer and something abhorrent to fight against. In the Royal Navy we had an old saying that, “One volunteer is worth ten pressed men.” Pressed men were forced into serving, just as some Russian conscripts are.

4. The scale of Ukraine: It is the second-largest country in Europe; it is almost 1,300 km wide. Conquering it is virtually impossible and holding it really is impossible. If Russia tries to ‘take and hold’ the Ukraine, it will find itself failing just as it did in Afghanistan.

5. Equipment and Tactics: The backward Russian regime only knows how to use blunt instruments and WWII style thinking. Ukraine empowers small, intelligent, coordinated but self- determining units that can rapidly adapt.

The truly democratic countries of the world have supplied Ukraine with $billions of military equipment and they will continue to do so.

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was right, “A sovereign, independent Ukraine will be around a lot longer than Vladimir Putin.”

Перемога Україні. Торжество добра над злом.

Shaun Tophan

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