ANALYSIS OF EVENTS ON THE FRONTS

As of March 21st

This is unedited Google translation. We will appreciate if a translator with military background volunteer to edit it and email his edited version to us via ukrainainc@gmail.com. Thank you!

The protracted operative pause suggests that some failures are hidden from the general public.

To understand the realities of the Russian Armed Forces: the war against Ukraine involved twelve armies (all available in the Russian Armed Forces), two corps of three (not yet noted military units 68 AK from Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk), all four divisions and four airborne brigades of the Russian Armed Forces, 6 naval brigades infantry.

Despite the loud name “army”, some of them are smaller than the division of the Soviet era: the most powerful is 1 army (3 divisions and a brigade), then – 58 army (two divisions and a brigade), 8 and 20 armies – two divisions, the most modest – 6, 29, 36, 49 armies (2 brigades).

That is, the Russian Federation used ALL existing military organizational structures of the Land Forces, TWO of the THREE corps of coastal troops and marines of ALL fleets and ALL organisms from the Airborne Forces. This is a full-scale invasion, albeit with limited objectives.

The picture of the main areas of action is as follows:

Volyn operating area: a game of nerves. Today, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus took 38 detachments to the PPD, which was demonstrating on the border with Ukraine. The threat of invasion of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus into Ukraine remains.

Polissya operational district and the city of Kyiv: in this area there are BTGr from divisions and brigades of 1, 2, 5, 35 armies, 155 brigades of marines and airborne troops. The commander of the 35th Army, General Sanchik, is in charge of the area. The defenders of Kyiv inflicted significant losses on the enemy in this direction, forcing them to use operational reserves prematurely. To date, the Armed Forces have forced the enemy to move in this direction to the defense.

Let me remind you that all the airborne troops from the 76th Airborne Forces, the 45th Airborne Regiment who was taken prisoner with severe injuries.

SOF of UAF defeated KP 35 armies, NSh army was seriously wounded and retired not only from battle but also from military service. Near Brovary suffered huge losses of 47 tons. The enemy did not abandon the main goal here – to capture Kyiv as the capital of our country, a symbol of Ukrainian statehood, a potential city for the revival of the Ukrainian Phoenix.

Attempts to seize the city will continue, although this task is gradually becoming the direction of another blow. Now the occupiers are trying to restore combat capability, replenish supplies and prepare for the next assault. According to experts, including foreign ones, the chances of success of the enemy are slim.

Interesting news – the battalion of Canadian Ukrainians already numbers 550 people, among them – the author of the longest confirmed sniper shot.

Siversk operational area: there are two brigades from the 36th Army (commander – General Solodchuk, appointed in December 2021). As near Kyiv, the enemy was stopped, he was forced to go to the defense, practically did not carry out offensive operations, continued to fire on the positions of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and residential areas of Chernihiv.

Slobozhansky operational district: military units from 6, 41 armies, 14 AK of the Northern Fleet, BTGr from 3 MSD and 4 TD operate on the route. The group is commanded by General Yershov, the commander of the 6th Army. The group got stuck in the battles near Kharkiv and Sumy, suffered huge losses and stopped, and in some areas moved beyond the state border. 200 omsbr from Pechenga, Murmansk region, known as the 4th Kantemir Panzer Division, found their inglorious end here.

The “miracles” of tactical skill were demonstrated in this direction by the 45th Engineering Brigade, which 4 (FOUR) times tried to build a pontoon crossing at the SAME place. All attempts were annulled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. An additional consequence of this senseless construction was the death of the chief of engineering troops of the Western Armed Forces of the Russian Armed Forces. In addition, in the battles near Kharkiv, the commander of the 29th Army, General Kolesnikov, the National Army and the deputy commander of the 41st Army, Generals Gerasimov and Sukhovetsky, were killed.

In recent days, the enemy has been blocking the cities of Sumy and Kharkiv, firing on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the infrastructure of Kharkiv and Chuguyev, and unsuccessful attempts to seize the city of Izyum have continued. The enemy suffers losses trying to move to the defense, began construction of strongholds. There are all indications that the enemy has lost its combat potential and has given up active operations in the area until its recovery is resolved. Supply columns are forced to move without cover of armored groups and helicopters, because such means are clearly lacking.

Donetsk operational area: the most difficult in terms of the number of troops involved in operations in this area. The enemy threw here four divisions of the 8th and 20th armies, 8 brigades and 3 regiments of the so-called “people’s militias” of the LPR / DPR. The group was probably led by the commander of the 8th Army, General Mordvich, who was killed on March 18.

The aim of the enemy’s actions in the north of this district is probably to break through the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the section Siverodonetsk – Kreminna, develop an offensive in the direction of Izyum, dissect the OS, surround their part in the north of Luhansk region and further defeat.

In the south of the district, the enemy is trying to solve two main tasks: the capture of the city of Mariupol and the breakthrough of the defense of the Armed Forces near Volnovakha and further connection with the occupiers near Melitopol. This development will allow the enemy to drive the OS beyond the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, to form a land corridor from Russia to the Crimea.

The state of affairs in besieged Mariupol is a matter of concern, with the city’s defenders rejecting an ultimatum to lay down their arms and end resistance. I have no answer to the question “When will the defenders of the city be helped?”.

In other areas in this area, the enemy continues to storm the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the entire line of contact, concentrating its main efforts on the Avdiivka direction, but suffered losses and was pushed back to the starting positions. The tactics of the Russian troops here are not much different from the tactics of the usual invasion, the enemy is stereotypically attacking in the same areas, trying to realize their numerical advantage.

The commander of the 150th MSD, General Mityaev, and the deputy commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet for military and patriotic work, Captain 1st Rank Paliy (“inspired” BTGr 810 OBRMP, which proved unable to carry out its combat mission near Mariupol), ended here.

Tavriya operational area: in this operational area there are troops from 49, 58 armies and 22 AK Black Sea Fleet Navy. The commander of the 58th Army, General Zusko (a native of Volyn, by the way), is in charge. The enemy group that invaded Ukraine from the Crimea struck not with a fist, but with open fingers in the directions Kherson – Mykolaiv – Voznesensk, part of the forces – on Nova Kakhovka, Melitopol – Vasylivka, part of the forces – on Energodar and Berdyansk.

As expected, the offensive stopped by itself due to the constant increase in the length of the front and the decrease in operational densities. This process was increased by units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which inflicted losses on the aggressor while conducting mobile defense without succumbing to his attacks.

Thus, control over the territory in the Kherson-Berdyansk-Vasylivka triangle has been temporarily lost. But the strength to restore it is preserved. The enemy is trying to hold the previously occupied frontiers, restore the combat capability of units and replenish supplies.

The meme of this war was Chornobaivka, where the enemy was attacked by the Armed Forces seven times in a row at the same airfield. There is no explanation for this phenomenon yet.

Also, I can’t explain why we surrendered Berdyansk almost without a fight and what is the fate of the ships and vessels of the naval base there.

South Bug river operational area: a situation – without changes though the enemy strikes fire and missile-air blows on infrastructure and housing sector of Nikolaev. The situation is controlled by the Armed Forces.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: yesterday in the area of Cape Tarkhankut was formed a landing detachment of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Armed Forces consisting of 5 VDK (“Kings”, “Victory”, “Kaliningrad”, “Saratov”, “Morgunov”) and escort ships frigate “Admiral Essen”, MRC “Vyshny Volochok”, line minesweeper “Golubets” and 2 rocket boats. At about 03:00 a group of ships arrived at the Odessa raid and at 05:00 the cruiser “Moscow” and the frigate “Admiral Essen” fired on the Ukrainian coast near the Gulf. The actions of the ship group were supported by 5 Su aircraft. As a result of our fire damage, the Admiral Essen frigate was damaged and two planes were shot down.

Defenders of Mariupol sank a patrol boat of project 03160 “Raptor”.

The Russian military is painting the names and board numbers on its ships, which could mean preparing Russia for future provocations against civilian ships, with further accusations of Ukrainian warships.

CONCLUSIONS:

— the enemy lost the offensive initiative in all directions, except the Donetsk operational area;
— demonstrative actions of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus on the border with Ukraine, “landing” in Odessa, publications about the probable offensive from Transnistria – the binding of the reserves of the Armed Forces;
— the enemy has huge problems with replenishment of losses. Rumors of recruiting and transferring mercenaries from Syria and Libya are nothing more than attempts to cover up the problem;
— strikes by tactical missiles of the 9k79 “Point” complex, which have become more frequent recently, are an indicator of the depletion of more modern Iskander and Caliber missiles; the Russians have a lack of high-precision weapons;
— Russian statements about “hypersonic weapon strikes” – advertising of non-existent weapons (“show weapons” – T. Cooper’s term);
— the hotspot is the front line in the Joint Forces operational zone;
air strikes will continue, the civilian population will get the most;
— the occupiers will try to legitimize their presence by imitating elections, appointing occupation administrations, and it is to be expected that the occupation regime will intensify, especially in the south.

It should be remembered that the Armed Forces also have losses, the troops are fighting hard and fiercely. There is no other way to bring our Victory closer.

Viktor Kevliuk