MISCALCULATION AND MYOPIA IN MOSCOW: UNDERSTANDING RUSSIA’S REGIME CHANGE FOLLY

”What the Russian military is finding out is similar to what most occupiers throughout history have learned. Very few occupations began with the military wanting to occupy; only once they arrived and realized how dire the situation was did the infeasibility of the mission become clear. There is no clear path to avoid occupation and achieve political success for Russia in this war. Instead, the most likely scenario seems to be that if Russia achieves a military victory, the postwar costs of occupation will continue to rise in a way that Moscow is unprepared for and did not price into its calculations. As is common for most cases of regime change throughout history, in opting for regime change to try and achieve quick political success, Russia has instead plunged itself into a situation requiring a costly occupation to even hope to have a chance at any political success. Instead, it is most likely to find that no political victory exists at the end of occupation.”

Read the whole article by Benjamin Denison, a nonresident fellow with Defense Priorities, the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.